Answer:
The passage commits a fallacy and specifically commits a false cause fallacy
Explanation:
A fallacy is a sort of faulty reasoning that makes a faulty argument. A fallacy usually denoted an error in logical form of an argument, it could also be formal or informal.
A fallacy of false cause is a kind of fallacy that makes a wrong conclusion from a premise that is usually arbitrary or imaginary. Example, how can the speaker above be so sure that the individual going to Las Vegas would end up exactly the way he had said it.