The probability that a randomly chosen male has a blood circulation problem is 0.25. Males who have a blood circulation problem are twice as likely to be smokers as those who do not have a blood circulation problem. Calculate the probability that a male has a blood circulation problem, given that he is a smoker.

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Answer:

The probability that a male has a blood circulation problem and he is a smoker is 0.4.      

Step-by-step explanation:

We have given,

The probability that a randomly chosen male has a blood circulation problem is 0.2.

P(Circulation) = .25

P(smoker | circulation) = 2 × P(smoker | not circulation)

Let P(smoker | not circulation) = x

Therefore P(smoker | circulation) = 2x

Let smoker = S, circulation = C

[tex]P(C\ |\ S)=\dfrac {P(S\ |\ C)}{[P(S\ |\ C)\times P(C) + P(S\ |\ not\ circulation)\times P(not\ circulation)]}[/tex]

[tex]P(C\ |\ S)=\dfrac {2x \times 0.25}{[2x \times 0.25 + x \times 0.75]} = \dfrac {0.5x}{(0.5x + 0.75x)} \\\\\\P(C\ |\ S)= \dfrac {0.5x}{1.25x} = 0.4[/tex]

Thus, the probability that a male has a blood circulation problem, given that he is a smoker is 0.4.  

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