The interest rate parity (IRP) theory explains the connection between a currency's spot exchange rate and its expected spot rate or forward currency value.
What if the IRP does not hold?
- Covered interest arbitrage would then be possible.
- Arbitrage is the opportunity to raise an excess return while supposing no risk. - The concept "covered" is used because the future exchange rate is secured through the use of a forward contract.
Forward Rate as Unbiased Predictor - the expected mean discrepancies are zero - the forward rate will constantly overestimate and underestimate the actual future spot rate.
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