Juanita, who is a young doctor preparing for surgical skills exam, can avoid being overconfident and failing as recommended by many researchers by asking other doctors to score her abilities.
The overconfidence effect refers to a well-established bias in which a subjective confidence of an individual in their own judgments is higher than the objective accuracy of those judgments by other expert individuals. It is an example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities. In other words, overconfidence happens when one's belief in one's capability and knowledge exceeds reality which can result in failure. In the given case, in order to avoid being overconfident and failing as a result in a surgical skill exam (which measures a doctor’s skill), Juanita can ask other doctors to score her skills objectively.
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