The conditional relative frequency that a state was won by the Democrat in 2012, given that a Democrat won the state in 1976 is: 12 (won by the Democrat in 2012 and also in 1976)/24(Total won by the Democrat in 1976)= 50 %
The conditional relative frequency that a state was won by the Republican in 2012, given that a Republican won the state in 1976 is: 12 (won by the Republican in 2012 and also in 1976)/27(Total won by the Republican in 1976)= 44.4 %
Since 44.4 % < 50%, the 2012 Republican candidate was slightly less likely to win a state that had voted for the party's candidate in 1976 than the Democratic candidate.