The expected one year holding period return is 18.52%
What is growth rate of the company's earnings?
The growth rate of the company's earnings is determined as the retention rate(1-dividend payout ratio) multiplied by the return on equity
growth rate=(1-40%)*20%
growth rate=12.00%
The return on the company's stock can be determined using the Capital Asset Pricing Model as shown below:
expected return=risk-free rate+(market return-risk-free rate)*beta
expected return=8%+(15%-8%)*1.2
expected return=16.40%
holding period=(price in one year-price now+ dividend in one year)/price now
price now=100
price in one year=dividend in year 2/(expected return-growth rate)
earnings now=10
dividend now in 1 year=10*(1+12%)*40%=4.48
earnings in 2 years=10*(1+12.00%)^2
earnings in 2 years=12.544
dividend in 2 years=12.544*40%= 5.0176
price in one year=5.0176/(16.40%-12.00%)
price in one year= 114.04
expected one year holding period return=(114.04-100+4.48)/100
expected one year holding period return=18.52%
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