Answer:
D. You believe it rained when you see a mud puddle.
Explanation:
A. is incorrect because an inference is an educated guess, and counting 43 tree rings is a conclusion.
C. is also incorrect because you found the temperature with a thermometer, there was no inference made before checking it.
B. is incorrect; inferences are based on past experiences/knowledge, which looking through a telescope at craters on the moon is not doing. It does not disclose other means of reaching the conclusion.
D. is correct. Using skills of observation, you infer that the mud puddle could have been caused by rain.