Question

Type the correct answer in the box. use numerals instead of words. the test to determine the presence of a certain virus in a pigeon is 97% accurate for a pigeon that has the virus and 99% accurate for a pigeon that does not have the virus. in a given population, 1.5% of the pigeons are infected. do not round your answer. the probability that a randomly selected pigeon gets an incorrect result is .

Answer 1

The probability that a randomly selected pigeon gets an incorrect result is; 0.0103

How to find the Probability?

We are told that;

1.5% pigeons are infected.

Inaccuracy of the test = 1 - 97% = 3%

1.5% of the pigeons are infected. Thus;

1 - 1.5% = 98.5% pigeons are un-infected.

Inaccuracy of test is 1 - 99% = 1% .

Thus;

0.03 and 0.01 are the probability of an error being made in infected and un-infected respectively.

Meanwhile, probability of infected and un-infected are 0.015 and 0.985 respectively.

Thus, the probability of a randomly chosen person gets an incorrect result = (0.03*0.015) + (0.985*0.01) =  0.0103

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