Question

A fair coin is to be tossed 20 times. Find the probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails, (a) using the binomial distribution formula. (b) using the normal approximation. (c) using the normal approximation with continuity correction.

Answer 1

Using the distributions, it is found that there is a:

a) 0.1762 = 17.62% probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails.

b) 0% probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails.

c) 0.1742 = 17.42% probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails.

Item a:

Binomial probability distribution

$P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}$

$C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}$

The parameters are:

• x is the number of successes.
• n is the number of trials.
• p is the probability of a success on a single trial.

In this problem:

• 20 tosses, hence $n = 20$.
• Fair coin, hence $p = 0.5$.

The probability is P(X = 10), thus:

$P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}$

$P(X = 10) = C_{20,10}.(0.5)^{10}.(0.5)^{10} = 0.1762$

0.1762 = 17.62% probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails.

Item b:

In a normal distribution with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation $\sigma$, the z-score of a measure X is given by:

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

• It measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean.  
• After finding the z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score, which is the percentile of X.
• The binomial distribution is the probability of x successes on n trials, with p probability of a success on each trial. It can be approximated to the normal distribution with $\mu = np, \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)}$.

The probability of an exact value is 0, hence 0% probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails.

Item c:

For the approximation, the mean and the standard deviation are:

$\mu = np = 20(0.5) = 10$

$\sigma = \sqrt{np(1 - p)} = \sqrt{20(0.5)(0.5)} = \sqrt{5}$

Using continuity correction, this probability is $P(10 - 0.5 \leq X \leq 10 + 0.5) = P(9.5 \leq X \leq 10.5)$, which is the p-value of Z when X = 10.5 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 9.5.

X = 10.5:

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

$Z = \frac{10.5 - 10}{\sqrt{5}}$

$Z = 0.22$

$Z = 0.22$ has a p-value of 0.5871.

X = 9.5:

$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$

$Z = \frac{9.5 - 10}{\sqrt{5}}$

$Z = -0.22$

$Z = -0.22$ has a p-value of 0.4129.

0.5871 - 0.4129 = 0.1742.

0.1742 = 17.42% probability that 10 of the tosses will fall heads and 10 will fall tails.

A similar problem is given at https://brainly.com/question/24261244