Question

You are working on a project that has 12 activities and want to perform a CPM analysis on the project. You determine the critical path consists of only five activities. You then compute the variances for the five critical path activities and these variances are 5, 4, 6, 4, and 6 days. If the desired completion date for the project is 35 days and the expected completion date for the project is 40 days, what is the probability that the project will be completed by the desired completion date?

Answer 1

Answer:

The probability of completing the project under 35 days is 0.1587.

Step-by-step explanation:

Let X = completion date of the time needed to complete the project.

The expected date is, E (X) = 40 days.

The standard deviation of the date is, SD (X) = √(5 + 4 + 6 + 4 + 6) = 5 days.

Compute the z-score for X = 35 as follows:

$z=\frac{X-E(X)}{SD(X)} =\frac{35-40}{5}=-1$

The probability of completing the project under 35 days is:

$P(X<35)=P(Z<-1)\\=1-P(Z<1)\\=1-0.8413\\=0.1587$

Thus, the probability of completing the project under 35 days is 0.1587.