Question

As an application of the "number of days" lost measure of risk discussed in "Scientific View of Risk" consider the following 2015 statistic. Today's life expectancy is well into the 80s. What percentage of life-long smokers die before the age of 70?
a. 90%
b. 30%
c. 50%
d. about the same number that die in plane crashes

Answer 1

Answer: 50%

Explanation: Scientific view of risks is established by the use of scientific method of evaluation to determine a possible outcome of an event in the future.

However, this concept of risk evaluation is ensued by the practice of probabilistic reasoning, a statistical approach to forecast an event.

Hence, the probability of life-long smokers to die before the age of 70 is halved, which translates to 50%.