Question

A polling firm, hired to estimate the likelihood of the passage of an upcoming referendum, obtained the set of survey responses to make its estimate. The encoding system for the data is: 1 = FOR, 2 = AGAINST. If the referendum were held today, estimate the probability that it would pass.0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0

Answer 1

Answer:

As there is a mismatch between the question and the data, following two approaches can be considered:

A: Data is replaced, the probability of referendum getting pass is 0.4.

B: Encoding System is replaced, the probability of referendum getting pass is 0.6.

Step-by-step explanation:

As the given data is not matching with the description of the question, this question can be solved in 2 ways:

Considering that 1 is FOR in Data and 2 is replaced with 0 in data.

So the new set of data will be as

2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2

So now the probability is given as

$P(A)=\frac{n_{event}}{n_{total}}\\P(1)=\frac{8}{20}\\P(1)=0.4$

So the probability of  getting this referendum approved is 0.4.

Considering that 0 is FOR in Data and 1 is AGAINST in data.

So the new set of data will be as

0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0

So now the probability is given as

$P(A)=\frac{n_{event}}{n_{total}}\\P(0)=\frac{12}{20}\\P(0)=0.6$

So the probability of  getting this referendum approved is 0.6.