Question

Estimate the probability that the next time you turn on a light switch, you discover that a bulb does work.

Answer 1

Answer:Pr( Bulb does work)= 0.9993

Step-by-step explanation:

From my own experience, I would say, 1 out of 1500times I turn on the light, the bulb does not work.

My subjective probability estimate that the bulb does not work =1/1500

And probability the bulb does work=

1- 1/1500

Pr( Bulb does work)= 0.9993

Therefore the subjective probability that the bulb does work is 0.9993