Part 1: You are playing a game of Russian roulette with me. I put it 2 bullets in consecutive chambers, spin it, and take my turn. I survived the round, and now it's your turn. You can either take the gun as it is, or spin the chamber to make it random again. Which option gives you a better chance of surviving?

Part 2: what would the answer be if there was only 1 bullet instead?

Question

03-01-2020
Mathematics

contestada

Part 1: You are playing a game of Russian roulette with me. I put it 2 bullets in consecutive chambers, spin it, and take my turn. I survived the round, and now it's your turn. You can either take the gun as it is, or spin the chamber to make it random again. Which option gives you a better chance of surviving?

Part 2: what would the answer be if there was only 1 bullet instead?

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roundadworthy roundadworthy · Answer 1 · 2020-01-04T10:45:59+01:00

Answer:

1. The option of spinning the chamber to make it random again gives you a probability of surviving of 67% (1 - Probability of having a bullet in the chamber). The option of taking the gun as it is for a second attempt gives you a probability of surviving of 60% (1- Probability of having a bullet in the chamber after a first non-bullet attempt). Therefore, spinning the chamber to make it random again gives you a better chance of surviving.

2. The option of spinning the chamber to make it random again gives you a probability of surviving of 83% (1 - Probability of having a bullet in the chamber). The option of taking the gun as it is for a second attempt gives you a probability of surviving of 80% (1- Probability of having a bullet in the chamber after a first non-bullet attempt). Therefore, spinning the chamber to make it random again also gives you a better chance of surviving with only one bullet.

Step-by-step explanation:

1. Which option gives you a better chance of surviving?

Let's assume the gun has six chambers, so the probabilities are:

Number of bullets remaining/Number of chambers

For the first attempt, probabilities are = 2/6 or 33%

For the second attempt of shooting the gun, the probability of having a bullet in the chamber would be = 2/5 or 40%

On the other hand, if you spin the chamber to make it random again, the probability of having a bullet in the chamber would be = 2/6 or 33%

The option of spinning the chamber to make it random again gives you a probability of surviving of 67% (1 - Probability of having a bullet in the chamber). The option of taking the gun as it is for a second attempt gives you a probability of surviving of 60% (1- Probability of having a bullet in the chamber after a first non-bullet attempt). Therefore, spinning the chamber to make it random again gives you a better chance of surviving.

2. What would the answer be if there was only 1 bullet instead?

Number of bullets remaining/Number of chambers

For the first attempt, probabilities are = 1/6 or 17%

For the second attempt of shooting the gun, the probability of having a bullet in the chamber would be = 1/5 or 20%

On the other hand, if you spin the chamber to make it random again, the probability of having a bullet in the chamber would be = 1/6 or 17%

The option of spinning the chamber to make it random again gives you a probability of surviving of 83% (1 - Probability of having a bullet in the chamber). The option of taking the gun as it is for a second attempt gives you a probability of surviving of 80% (1- Probability of having a bullet in the chamber after a first non-bullet attempt). Therefore, spinning the chamber to make it random again also gives you a better chance of surviving with only one bullet.