Question

Howard Weiss, Inc,. is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that there is a probability of 0.35 that the ATR Co. will come out with a competitive product. If Weiss adds an assembly line for the product and ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product, Weiss's expected profti is $60,000; If Weiss adds an assembly line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $20,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition and ATR does not produce a competitive product, Weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, Weiss expects a loss of $120,000.

a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line Option=

Expected value for the Build New Plant option=

The alternative that provides Weiss the greatest expected monetary value(EMV) is

The value of the return under this decision is

b) The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for Weiss=

Answer 1

Answer:

Consider the following information

Probability of ATR coming up with a competitive product is 0.35

If ATR does not come up with a competitive product and H adds an assembly line, the profit is $60,000

If it adds an assembly line and ATR adds the product, the profit is $20,000

If H adds a new assembly but ATR does not come up with a competitive product, the profit is $600,000

If ATR does not enter the market, the loss for H is $120,000

A) Expected value for the add assembly line option:

The company would get a profit of $60,000 if ATR does not come up with a competitive product. If ATR comes up with a competitive product and H adds an assembly line, the profit is $20,000.

Probability of not coming up with a product is 0.65 (1-0.35)

Calculate the value if it does not come up with a new product line and H adds an assembly line as follows:

Value if it does not come up with a new product = 0.65 x $60,000

= $39,000

Calculate the value if it comes up with a new product line and H adds an assembly line as follows:

Value if it does come up with a new product = 0.35 x $20, 000  = $7,000

Calculate the expected value as follows:  

Expected value = S39000 + $7000

Expected value =$46,000

Expected value for build new plant option:

If H adds a new assembly but ATR does not come up with a competitive product, the profit is $600,000

If ATR does not enter the market, the loss for H is $120,000

Calculate the value if H adds a new assembly but ATR does not come up with a competitive product as follows:

Value if it does not come up with a new product = 0.65 x $600000

= $390, 000

Calculate the value if ATR does not enter the market:

Value if it does not compete in market = 0.35 x -$120000  = -$42, 000

Calculate the expected value as follows:  

Expected value= $390,000 - $42,000

Expected value =$348,000

The expected value of building a plant is more than the expected value of adding product line. Therefore, the best alternative is to build the plant.

B) Calculation of expected value of perfect information (EVPI):

EVPI = 0.65 x $600,000 + 0.35 x $120,000

EVPI = $390,000 + $42,000

EVPI =$432,000

Calculation of value of return:

Value of return = Value of perfect information - Maximum EMV

Value of return =$432,000 - 348,000

Value of return =$84,000