I think that the first country that will break, from the suggest ones, will be the United Kingdom.
Explanation:
There are many countries in the world that have one or more territories that would like to be independent, or because of particular circumstances are thinking about that. The five suggested countries all have territories of this type, and in the near or distant future there is high chances that they will break apart.
France at the moment doesn't have serious problems of this type, though Bretagne (Brittany) is a region where there is movement and ambitions about independence. Serbia has the pokraina of Vojvodina, which also has a movement for independence, though it doesn't seem as something serious at the moment. Russia at the moment doesn't really have any problems of this type, except some little groups (in Chechnya, Dagestan), as Putin is holding tightly everything under control. In Germany, there is a possibility if the country starts going into the wrong direction that Bavaria can separate, especially because it is a powerful region in many aspects, and culturally distinct.
The United Kingdom though seems to have the biggest problems at the moment. It recently had a referendum, where Scotland almost voted for independence. But now it seems that Northern Ireland is a bigger problem. The reason for that is that the UK is coming out of the EU, and Northern Ireland will have a border with Ireland, which the people dislike a lot. It is a territory physically separated from the rest of the UK, and since the religious conflict has been put aside, the same culture and ethnicity of the people, as well as living on the same island, may move things into independence movement.
Learn more about the religious conflict in Northern Ireland https://brainly.com/question/12818719
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