I'm looking at extreme daily temperature under a histroical scenario and a future scenario and would like to know the relationship between the 99th percentile temperature value, a 100 year return value and the exceedence probability. I know that a 100 year event has an exceedence probability of 1%/year. Does this mean that a 100 year event has a 1% chance of exceeding the historical 99th percentile temperature value?
