Consider the following scenario. Suppose that
1000 people are involved in a conspiracy.
Suppose that every single individual involved in
the conspiracy can be trusted 99.9%, that is,
there is a 0.01% probability they reveal the
secrets of the conspiracy to the media within 50
years. This probability is the same for everyone
involved, and never changes over the course of
the 50 years. Moreover, suppose that the event
where anyone goes to the media (or not) is
independent if anyone else has (or hasn't)
already.
What is the probability that at least one
person involved in the conspiracy reveals their
involvement to the media within 50 years?
