The objective of the National Hurricane Modification Program (NHMP) is to determine whether any hurricane threatening the U.S. coast should be seeded with silver iodide crystals in an attempt to mitigate its destructive effect. To achieve this goal, probability estimates are obtained about the likely impact of seeding a hurricane on the maximum sustained surface wind speed. A predictive model is then developed to determine the property damages (in millions of dollars) resulting from the various changes in wind speed.
The information below was just collected on Hurricane Irene heading for the East Coast. Note that the seeding will change only the probabilities of various changes in wind speed and the property damage will be determined solely by changes in wind speed. Place yourself in the position of the NHMP director. If the cost of seeding the hurricane is $15,000,000, develop a decision tree and analyze it to determine if Irene should be seeded. What is the expected damage resulting from the optimal strategy?
