chegg a classic experiment in the 1960's eloquently illustrated the technical side of conservatism bias. the researchers presented subjects with two urns – one containing 3 blue balls and 7 red balls, the other containing 7 blue balls and 3 red ones. subjects were given this information and then told that someone had drawn randomly 12 times from one of the urns (with replacement). subjects were told that this draw yielded 8 reds and 4 blues. they were then asked, "what is the probability that the draw was made from the first urn?" formulate the problem in terms of bayes’ rule. state all of your assumptions and all assignments explicitly. solve the probability question asked.
